The potential for stardom lurking in Josh Richardson
The Jimmy Butler trade saga grinds on. It’s been less than two weeks - a mere blink in the timeline of a normal trade process - but the highly charged circumstances surrounding the process (or lack thereof) have made it feel like an eternity.
Is Glen trying to get Thibs to quit? Is Thibs trying to get himself fired? Is Thibs even trying to trade Jimmy? He tells the cameras he is, but every report from behind the scenes says he’s very much not.
Nevertheless, reports have also indicated the Wolves are being flooded with inquiries about Butler. Not surprising, as he is, despite all the drama, a top 15 player in the league. Teams are even willing to deal for him without assurances he’ll stay (although this does lower their offers considerably)
But one team that has been pushing very hard to acquire Jimmy - and who has leapt to the top of Jimmy’s own list - is the Miami Heat.
Monday, it looked and sounded like a deal with the Heat was close. Layden came out for media day with his phone as if expecting a call, at the same time Richardson, Justise Winslow, Hassan Whiteside and Kelly Olynyk were conspicuously late to the Heat’s media day. Then nothing happened. Then we learned Thibs had made another plea to Jimmy to stay. If I were to guess, Thibs probably stepped into the middle of the trade talks and shut it down or made some sort of outrageous demand - something we have both reports and hard evidence of him doing - in order to buy time to chase Jimmy down and beg him to change his mind later that evening. Which again, if true, is an unprecedented display of insubordination by a team executive to an owner. A 100% fireable offense.
But just as importantly, it may have cost the Wolves the best player they can realistically hope to acquire in a Butler trade: Josh Richardson.
Earlier this week, I put out on Twitter that I believe Josh Richardson has a shot at stardom. I said I would explain that at some point, and this is that point.
Richardson was completely unheralded coming into his draft three years ago. He did not garner significant media attention, did not get invited to the pre-draft combine, and was ultimately selected 40th overall. None of this has stopped him from climbing the ladder.
Last season, as Zach Lowe noted more than once, Richardson was indisputably the Heat’s best player:
“Josh Richardson has made a leap, and some within the Heat are optimistic he can be a two-way star — something that would change their entire long-term picture. Richardson defends the most dangerous opposing scorer, and he’s emerging as a long-armed shot-blocking menace. On offense, he’s starting to manipulate defenses on the pick-and-roll with a new change-of-pace sophistication.
Richardson has even shown flashes of the single most elusive star trait: the ability to create, and make, tough off-the-bounce shots — including hand-in-the-face midrangers — one-on-one in crunch time. ”
Richardson, in fact, has had a rise almost identical to Jimmy Butler’s. Eerily so. Here’s Richardson’ last season compared to Jimmy Butler’s 2013-2014 season. Both 25 years old, both having been drafted well out of the first round (Jimmy was 30th overall in his draft, Josh was 40th), both in their first real starting roles after having barely played their first seasons:
Per/36 minutes, Richardson actually beats out Butler in every box score category except steals (Jimmy played an absurd 39 minutes/game his third season), and Josh already has a huge advantage over Jimmy in the shooting department, the most difficult skill to pick up post-college if you don’t already have it.
But the true, actual markers of Richardson’ potential greatness is less about production and more about profile.
There are plenty of good players in the NBA. Players who contribute specific things for specific teams who play them in specific roles. Courtney Lee is a good player. Aron Baynes is a good player. Jordan Bell is a good player. Gerald Green - against all odds (of his own making) - is a good player. Their teams give them specific things to do when they’re on the court, and they do them very very well.
What separates good players from great players is usually that all-elusive “getting it”. By which I mean, having an understanding of basketball beyond what can be written down on a whiteboard diagram. Taj Gibson is a great player, not because he’s productive, but because he gets basketball at a cerebral and instinctive level. He understands spacial awareness and good positioning, timing and anticipation, pace and communication, and his own limitations. The sorts of things that are innate to the human mind. Things that can’t be taught. This is where you get guys like Jrue Holiday, Steven Adams, JJ Redick and Al Horford. Players you wouldn’t build a whole team around, but are so good and fundamentally necessary that you hoard them and even max contract them anyway.
This is the trap teams fall into with so many players when they’re young. It’s the conundrum the Wolves found themselves in with Zach LaVine, and the one they’re still stuck in with Andrew Wiggins. Wig is a stellar athlete who’s productive (although not necessarily efficient) in a key area of scoring. But beyond all the debate about his rebounding, passing, handles, etc, it’s just not clear that he “gets it”. His performance in those key “things that can’t be taught” areas is dismal. He doesn’t understand spacing or how to move to create passing lanes. He doesn’t understand shot selection. He doesn’t understand how to time his dribbles, how to see a passing lane before it opens, or how to read a defender’s foot positioning or body language.
Josh Richardson does. And because of that, it’s almost assured that Josh Richardson will be a great player. That’s the baseline promise you’re betting on in trading a player like Jimmy for him.
Richardson knows how to control the pace. He dictates the rhythm of the game when he has the ball, and plays with an impressive headiness and changing-of-speeds footwork that forces defense into a reactive mode trying to guess what he’ll do. He has tight handles, great balance, and a well-mastered hesitation move he combines to great effect:
As Lowe mentioned, Richardson understands how to read the defense off the pick-and-roll and make the right decision based on where the lapse in coverage happens. It cannot be stressed enough how important this is in today’s NBA.
Richardson also knows how to read an individual defender. He understands when a defender is out of position, if his feet are set the wrong way, if his weight is shifted the wrong direction and his body is off balance. And he does this on an instinctive level, so his reaction is so quick, the defender has no time to correct himself:
Richardson has a great sense of timing and exceptional body control, which shows up at the rim….
…in the passing lanes….
…and in blocking shots, where Richardson ranked 3rd among all wing players in blocks/game, behind only Jerami Grant and Danny Green. Josh was the only player in the league to record more than 120 steals and more than 75 blocks last season.
Richardson has a growing and well-deserved reputation as a chase-down block artist, in the way that LeBron has, Wade used to have, and Josh Okogie started to have in summer league.
Finally, Richardson is a good facilitator. Potentially a great one, as far as wing players go. This is immensely important for any high-usage player, particularly on the perimeter. If a wing is going to take up 20%+ of their team’s possessions, he needs to be able to facilitate. Otherwise the offensive flow breaks down and becomes too predictable. The Wolves have had this problem since forever, with Wally, with Wiggins, and even with Butler in late-game situations. Richardson would go a long ways towards correcting that. He has the awareness and court vision to see plays develop before they happen, and the timing and precision to make something of that.
Again, while nothing is certain until it’s achieved, all of this points towards likely greatness in Richardson’s future. He has all the intangibles of “getting it” that elevates players past being just merely utilitarian. Awareness, anticipation, timing, body control, court vision, positioning, speed, finesse. All used in tandem, and all used at an instinctive level where he doesn’t waste time calculating what he’s doing.
Now, about that potential stardom. Lowe touched on this with his ability to create plays in isolation, and that’s absolutely a central piece. A huge part of being a star is being able to take the ball and make something out of nothing when the set play falls apart. But the real key to that is how star players can pull it off.
In broad strokes, what separates the great players from the superstars is one of two things. First, being an all-timer at a certain skillset. Steph Curry is an all time great shooter. So was Dirk in his prime. So were Steve Nash and Ray Allen. KAT is on his way to being one soon. Draymond Green is an all time elite defender. Like Ben Wallace, or Dikembe Mutombo. Chris Paul has all time great handles. So does Kyrie Irving. So did Allen Iverson. Jason Kidd had all time great court vision. So did John Stockton and Magic Johnson. Tim Duncan was the most reliable player of his era. Karl Malone was the most reliable of the era before. Those guys are/were franchise players because they have/had one thing they were so unbelievably great at their team could build a whole roster around it.
The other, of course, is elite physical profile. Kevin Durant has freakish mobility for a 7'-footer. So does Anthony Davis and Giannis. So did Kevin Garnett. Shaq was insurmountably strong. Kawhi Leonard is too, as far as wing players go. John Wall is blindingly fast. Rudy Gobert has unfathomable height and wingspan, like Yao. Blake Griffin has astonishing leaping ability, a ‘finesse athleticism’ akin to Chris Webber or Kobe. Russell Westbrook has a vicious athleticism in the mold of Latrell Sprewell or Charles Barkley. LeBron James, as a guy with both a freakish physical profile and all time great skills, is arguably the greatest athletic specimen of any sport, ever. These are guys who dominate the field by being flat out faster, bigger, stronger, more relentless than the competition.
Josh Richardson falls mostly into the latter category. He’s not an outrageous athlete like Russ, which is why his odds at stardom are a ‘maybe’, not a ‘probably’. But he’s got a serious physical profile. Standing about 6’6” with a wingspan somewhere between 6’10” and 7’, and a vertical that looks to be approaching 40”, Richardson falls into the same general physical category as guys like JR Smith, Will Barton, Andre Iguodala and the original JRich, Jason Richardson. He’s a touch taller than Victor Oladipo, and a touch shorter than Gerald Green. That’s not bad.
Again, he’s not a freak like LeBron is a freak, but what he has is on the high end, and should be more than enough when combined with his hard skills to put real stardom within reach.
All this is to say that Richardson is absolutely the player the Wolves should be targeting if Jimmy wants to be in Miami, and they are absolutely doing the right thing by holding out if Miami isn’t willing to include him. A deal with the Heat that doesn’t include Richardson is, quite frankly, a disappointment. Richardson is a capable starting wing, with probable greatness and potential stardom in his future. This needs to be the line the Wolves draw.
