Evaluating the Jimmy Butler trade market
So here’s some good news: the number of teams willing to talk a Jimmy Butler trade is exponentially larger than the three teams Jimmy has on his wish list.
It’s always a given there will be teams willing to deal for a top 15 player the Thunder after two years of everyone assuming he would go to Los Angeles, and word that Kawhi Leonard is strongly attached to staying in Toronto for the long haul.
With that in mind, the trade market for Jimmy has opened up wide, with reports flooding in that seemingly every team in the league has at least contacted the Wolves to inquire.
The golden rule in trading a superstar is to get something back that at least has star potential: either a guaranteed high draft pick, or a young player full of upside.
[UPDATE] It’s not clear exactly what the Wolves are asking for in return, or if there’s even an agreement on it. A quality starter + a second player + a draft pick seems like the most common (and most logical) report out there. But rummit has it Layden is pushing for more, with one of the players having star potential plus the mandatory dealing of Dieng’s contract - while Woj is reporting Thibs still doesn’t want to talk trade at all, and is instead continuing to futiley chase after Butler like a high school girl who can’t get over her dipwad of an ex (don’t lie, we all knew one)
UUUUUUUGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Anyway…..
Zach Lowe already covered the field of realistic trades that could be made. There’s no reason to just reiterate what he’s already written, especially since I’d never be able to do it as well as him anyway. So instead, I’m just going to post my thoughts on his thoughts. Because I am just that lazy. Sue me.
(Don’t actually sue me please, Zach)
The Jimmy List: Knicks, Nets, Clippers
The teams Jimmy wants to go offers a very difficult problem for the Wolves: the team that has the most to offer (the Knicks) also has the least incentive to come to the table.
Ideally, of these three teams, the Wolves would walk out with a package built around Kevin Knox, a wildly athletic swing 3/4 who can knock down threes and has strong potential as a defender. A lineup featuring KAT, Wiggins, Knox and Keita Bates-Diop/Josh Okogie would emulated the switch-everything defense the Celtics crushed the league with last season - a flotilla of athletic, long-armed 6’6” - 6’10” guys who can all guard multiple positions.
This also is the least feasible deal to actually happen. The Knicks really have no reason to make a semi-panic trade for Jimmy when a) they have no reason to be panicking, and b) have ample cap space to sign him outright next summer.
The Nets do have a reason to come to the table. Sean Marks is clearly following the reliable rebuilding format of stockpiling cheap assets, hoping one of them truns out to be really good, then swapping them en masse for a superstar. Jimmy Butler would be that superstar.
But eh….the players Brooklyn has to offer don’t do much for me. D’Angelo Russell is, in fact good, and could get a lot better, but it’s just not a deal that gets the blood flowing. Ditto for Chris LaVert, and I’m not nearly as sold on Rondae Hollis-Jefferson as Lowe is.
The Clippers would offer the best package of veterans to satisfy Thibs’ “win now at all costs” mentality. But are we really going to play the ‘satisfy Thibs’ game still? I think this past week has made it clear the team is effectively cutting him out of the future.
Tobias Harris is good. Just how good is an enigma. Seems like an exhausting game to play when we’re already fully down that rabbit hole with Wiggins. I don’t think Lou Williams can be traded until December, so that’s out. Avery Bradly and Patrick Beverly are…something? Both can be good. Both are probably not as good as we’d hope for.
But counterpoint here:
I’m just saying. I may need an intervention.
In addition, none of these teams have real draft picks to offer: they’re all either late first rounders, or owed to other teams. Overall, no deal that doesn’t include Kevin Knox gets me really excited about the options here.
The Not-On-Jimmy’s-List-But-Will-Come-Calling: Heat, Trailblazers, Wizards, Rockets, Bucks
This is unsurprising but really good news. Pat Riley is someone Glen trusts (a very important aspect to Taylor in any transaction he makes) and the Heat have legitimate pieces to offer. Miami is always star hunting, and they’re a team that has all the pieces in place except the star. And acquiring Butler would also reunite him with Dwyane Wade, who’s one of his closest friends. This makes a lot of sense for them.
A deal here would almost certainly revolve around Josh Richardson, an unheralded 40th overall pick who has worked his way into being a high-impact starter, and could be on the verge of being a breakout star. Consider what Lowe wrote about Richardson back in March:
“Say it with me: Richardson is the Miami Heat’s best all-around player. He is a threat both on and off the ball — must-have versatility for a star-less team that compensates by turning all five players into live-wire threats.
He is a terror on defense, quick enough to chase point guards and rangy enough to jostle bigger wings — and even some power forwards when Miami goes super-small.”
And even more effusively even further back in January:
“Josh Richardson has made a leap, and some within the Heat are optimistic he can be a two-way star — something that would change their entire long-term picture. (My hottest Heat take: Richardson is already their best all-around player.) Richardson defends the most dangerous opposing scorer, and he’s emerging as a long-armed shot-blocking menace. On offense, he’s starting to manipulate defenses on the pick-and-roll with a new change-of-pace sophistication.
Richardson has even shown flashes of the single most elusive star trait: the ability to create, and make, tough off-the-bounce shots — including hand-in-the-face midrangers — one-on-one in crunch time. Spoelstra of late has moved toward a closing lineup of Richardson, Dragic, Ellington, James Johnson, and Olynyk. ”
Richardson is one of the best outcomes the Wolves could hope for, given the absurd circumstances and even absurder timeline this is all happening in. Even better if they can somehow snag Justise Winslow or Bam Abedayo along with him. Bestest if they can also shed Gorgui Dieng’s contract in the process. Keep an eye on this one.
The Trailblazers reportedly have indeed called, but are unwilling to part with CJ McCollum. Trading CJ for Jimmy doesn’t improve the Blazers enough to vault them into the conversation with the Warriors or Rockets. They’d want a Dame/CJ/Butler trio. But obviously, any deal that doesn’t include McCollum or Lillard is a complete non-starter for the Wolves.
The Rockets themselves always find a way into any trade conversation, and this is no different. A deal with Houston would have to revolve around Eric Gordon. That’s a major meh, for me. I mean, physically and functionally, he’s pretty much the same as CJ McCollum, who I would kill for. But like Tobias Harris and Chris LaVert, there’s just no hype factor here. Would anyone really be super excited for Eric Gordon? Also, I have no real basis for this, but my gut feeling is Gordon would not like being here, and his tenure would be short lived.
The Wizards are an interesting idea to contemplate. They’re a team that, on paper, has a great roster, but in practice, has a lot of turmoil. It’s not a stretch to say they may decide not to risk a blowup midseason and shake things out now.
A deal with the Wizards involving Otto Porter sounds great in theory, but the long-term reprocussions could be crippling. He’s on a max contract, but isn’t a max player in the sense of ‘franchise player’. He’s a max player in the sense of ‘what this guy does specifically for our team is worth it’ max player. Like Klay Thompson. Like Al Horford. Adding him as a third max player to form a KAT/Wiggins/Porter trio? Oof. No bueno. The Wolves are already on financial thin ice with Wiggins’ deal officially kicking in. No need to add to the risk.
Now, if the Wizards were to instead offer Bradley Beal, we’d have something to talk about.
And last but not least are the Bucks, who find themselves in a very interesting situation as well. Giannis has made the leap to legit MVP candidate, but his supporting cast has fallen short. And the one legitimate player on it, Khris Middleton, is a free agent next summer, and there’s already talk of worries in Milwaukee about what he will cost.
Add to that the no-undeniable greatness of the Celtics and Kawhi entrenching with the Raptors, and the Bucks may decide they need to swing for the fences. Jimmy is a superstar. Dealing for him would at least put them in the conversation with Boston and Toronto.
For the Wolves, grabbing Khris Middleton would be probably the best case scenario. He’s at the highest end of the role player spectrum with some legitimate star qualities. Last season, he averaged 20 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists while shooting 36% from three. He’d be an instant, genuine replacement for Jimmy in the starting lineup, and what the Wolves would lose in sheer power, they’d make up a good percentage of in blend. Middleton does not need to dominate the ball to contribute. He’d be a perfect #2 for KAT.
Of the teams that have shown strong interest, Middleton and Josh Richardson are the players the Wolves would be best off acquiring. Both are real possibilities.
The Randy-Orton-Out-Of-Nowhere-List: Nuggets, Celtics, Pistons
The Nuggets have expressed incredible interest in Jimmy over the years. Has this changed with them maxing out Nikola Jokic to build their timeline around a 23 year old? I don’t know. But grabbing Gary Harris or Jamal Murray in exchange for Jimmy would be another dream trade for the Wolves. Murray is a great shooter who could be an all-timer in the end. Harris is like a mini-Kawhi - a bulldog defender who can do some of everything on offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if they come through with an offer at the last minute.
The Pistons, I have no idea what they’d have to offer. They won’t trade Blake Griffin, and the Wolves will have no interest in Stanley Johnson. Everything else falls well short of Josh Richardson. But they will try.
The Celtics are, well. the Celtics. Like Houston, they will always barge into any trade conversation, regardless of if they’re serious or not. Jimmy was one of the big names tied to them before they signed Gordon Hayward, and they do have Jimmy’s BFF, Kyrie Irving, on the roster. But they’d have to gut an incredibly promising core of Jasyon Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier to make a deal work. Would I kill for two of those four? Yes. If that likely to happen? No.
[UPDATE] The 76ers have come calling! Like the Heat, this is another fortuitous turn of events, as the Sixers also need to make a trade to get Jimmy, and have a lot of good assets to trade for him.
My guess is any deal here would be Markelle Fultz and either Robert Covington or Dario Saric. Fultz’ promise has taken some serious punishment with all the drama attached to the health of his shooting arm, but make no mistake, he’s still a blue chip prospect. The Fultz that played at Washington was half Brandon Roy, half James Harden. Covington is a good shooter and great defender who would perfectly slot into the vacated small forward position. Ditto Saric, a genuine jack-of-all-trades with freakish mobility packed into his 6’10” frame. There’s shades of Hedo Turkoglu, Lamar Odom and Toni Kukoc in his game. If you believe Fultz’s shot is fixable (which I definitely do, because it wasn’t broken before the injury) then this would be another home run deal.
Also calling? The Cavaliers. Gilbert and Taylor worked very closely on the Kevin Love trade, so like Pat Riley, there’s a level of trust there. But like the Pistons, I just don’t see what the Cavs could offer. Kevin Love is clearly off the table. Everything else is meh. Except, of course, for one KYLE KORVER.
Would I trade Jimmy Butler for Kyle Korver straight up? ….you probably don’t want to know the answer to that. Just be thankful I’m not in charge.
And finally, an interesting twist: the Sacramento Kings are without a draft pick this year, but have a ton of unused cap space, and are actively lobbying to take on bad contracts to help facilitate a trade if they can get draft picks with them. This slows down Glen’s preferred timeline, as the more teams get added the more complex things obviously become. But it also ups the chances of shedding Gorgui’s deal by quite a bit.
Glen Taylor really wants this done before training camp gets into full swing, and I don’t think anyone can blame him for that. Even withe the drama unfolding behind the scenes over what appears to be straight up insubordination by Thibs, a trade is probably coming within the next 3-4 days at the most. Buckle up.
