Thibs still has the Wolves guarding the wrong spots on the floor
Huh.
Last season, I broke down the Wolves’ terrible defense. While Tom Thibodeau loved to criticize communication and effort, the stark truth was the primary problem was Thibs’ defensive scheme was fundamentally flawed.
Visual shot charts told the whole story. In an era where teams game their shot selection to intentionally seek out layups and threes, Thibs’ defense overloaded the midrange, all but inviting teams to shoot layups and threes. Compare this to San Antonio, who did the exact opposite - denying opponents layups and threes, and leaving the midrange open.
The Spurs were the second best defensive team last season. The Wolves were 26th.
And this season, that really hasn’t changed for Minnesota.
Currently the Wolves sit 21st on defense, embarrassingly behind some rather anemic teams, including the Cavaliers and (gulp) Bulls. And the statistics show that, once again, the reason is Thibs still has them guarding the wrong spots on the floor.
Point blank defense has actually improved, thanks to Karl-Anthony Towns focusing in and becoming a shot blocking menace of late. KAT is posting a career high in blocks per game so far this year, and has vastly improved his judgement on when to go for the swat versus when to stay on the ground.
That said, the Wolves are still thoroughly average at rim defense overall. They’re both middle of the pack at FGA allowed (29.1) and FG% allowed (63%). They aren’t laying out a red carpet to the hoop the way they were last season, but they aren’t particularly denying anything either. Great defenses limit one or the other, or both.
But the true downfall of Minnesota’s defensive scheme is, once again, the three point line. The Wolves are dead last at three point defense, allowing the firth most attempts per game (33.4) and the worst 3pt% (37.7%) On average, the Wolves have 38 points scored against them from three - a crippling number in the modern basketball era.
Broken down by zones, the problem becomes even clearer:
Right corner: 23rd in 3pt% allowed, 22nd in attempts allowed
Straight on: 22nd in 3pt% allowed, 20th in attempts allowed
Left corner: 27th in 3pt% allowed, 28th in attempts allowed
The corners are the best threes to take because they’re the shortest distance and the easiest to get open shots from. So not only are the Wolves not guarding the three point line, but they’re worse at guarding the threes opponents want to take the most.
Now contrast this with Minnesota’s “palindrome” in the defensive standings, if you will: Milwaukee, who currently sits at 11th.
The Bucks absolutely locks down the paint, ranking 1st in both FGA allowed at the rim (24.5) and FG% allowed (56.2) On average, the Bucks allowed 10 fewer points per game at the rim than the Wolves. That’s the difference in defense between the Utah Jazz and the New York Knicks. So, yeah. It’s a big deal.
Or contrast this with the Jazz themselves, who suffocate the corners. Utah ranks 7th 3pt% allowed from the right corner and 4th in 3pt% allowed from the left corner, and are the 7th best defensive team overall.
So much like last season, the Wolves are over-guarding the midrange - which are low percentage shots worth only 2 points - and leaving open the paint (high percentage shots) and the three point line (worth - duh - three points). That’s the opposite of a sound NBA defensive strategy in the year 2019.
So where does Gordon Hayward fit in to all this?
Well, here’s the thing. Despite the proclamations that “Hayward is back” after his 35 point outburst - which, by the way, also happened a month ago after a 30 point outburst against the Wolves, which was followed by a month of averaging 10 points on 37% shooting - what Gordon did against the Wolves wasn’t anything particularly extraordinary. In fact, for the Wolves, allowing scoring explosions from seemingly out of nowhere is the norm.
Here are some of the random, low usage, unproven and/or unknown role players to light up the Wolves this season:
Ersan Illyasova: averaging 7 points on 43% shooting this season. Scored 16 points on 60% shooting against the Wolves
Cedi Osman: averaging 11 points on 39% shooting this season. Scored 22 points on 4-7 from three against the Wolves
Josh Hart: averaging 9 points on 43% shooting this season. Scored 21 against the Wolves. All 5 of his makes were from 3
Willy Cauley-Stein: averaging 13 points this season. Scored a season high 25 against the Wolves on 70% shooting. Made the only 3 he’s taken all year
Yogi Ferrell: averaging 6 points this season. Scored 17 against the Wolves, shooting 4-4 from 3
Reggie Bullock: averaging 11 points on 41% shooting this season. Scored 33 against the Wolves, shooting 7-12 from 3
Bryn Forbes: averaging 12 points this season. Scored 22 against the Wolves, shooting 3-5 from 3
David Bertans: averaging 7 points this season. Scored 15 against the Wolves. All 5 of his makes were from 3
Dewayne Dedmon: averaging 9 points this season. Scored 16 against the Wolves, shooting 4-6 from 3
Dwyane Wade: averaging 14 points on 41% shooting this season. Scored 21 against the Wolves on 53% shooting. All his makes were layups or dunks
Darius Miller: averaging 7 points on 40% shooting this season. Scored 21 against the Wolves, shooting 7-11 from 3
And also on the list is ex-Timberwolf Zach LaVine, who scored 28 despite a clearly injured leg, with all but one of his shots coming from point blank or behind the three point line.
So you can see a pattern in this. The Wolves not only regularly give up shots at the rim and the three point line, but also regularly get lit up by non-superstars because of it. This is why they struggle to maintain any defensive consistency. It’s also why they lost so many games to bad teams last year: bad teams make up for their lack of talent with shot selection, relentlessly hunting for layups and threes - the exact shots the Wolves’ defense doesn’t defend.
So no, Gordon Hayward didn’t do anything that dozens of unheralded role players don’t do to the Wolves on a regular basis. He just happens to be a better player than them, so he does it bigger and louder than they do. But the underlying flaw is the same, which is the same flaw the Wolves have had on defense for the entirety of Thibs’ tenure here: they guard the wrong spots on the floor.
