Thibs has the Wolves guarding the wrong spots on the floor

Thibs has the Wolves guarding the wrong spots on the floor

For the better part of two seasons now, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been a disaster on the defensive end of the court, ranking in the bottom 5 in opponents points, defensive rating, and a slew of individual defensive metrics. 

This is especially worrisome because the coach of the Timberwolves is Tom Thibodeau, who was known as a defensive savant during his tenure with the Chicago Bulls. Stellar defense was the payoff for enduring his generic offense, minutes and injuries issues, as what is, quite frankly, a fairly joyless approach to the game of basketball. That was the tradeoff that made all the frustrations worth it.

But for two seasons now, Thibs' vaunted defense has been a no-show, leaving only the frustrations. It's been an especially vexing problem this season - Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson, who were two-thirds of the Thibs' Bulls exceptional defense in Chicago, are on board now. Yet the defensive rating has remained in the basement.

There's a lot of factors that play into this. NBA defense is an incredibly complex mix of planning, communication, chemistry, physicality, and effort. But one area that has been a major problem defensively - and is extremely troublesome both in how simple it is and who is ultimately responsible - is that the Wolves are simply guarding the wrong places on the floor.

The two best places to shoot from on the floor are at the rim (layups and dunks) and corner threes. Point blank is obvious because it's hard to miss. Teams shoot an average of 60% at the rim; nowhere else on the court is the average FG% over even 50%. And the corners are the shortest distance three point shots. Mathematically, you can shoot a significantly lower percentage on threes versus twos and still score the same number of points, and the corner three has the highest FG% of anywhere on the arc. The points being scored from these locations are far higher than anywhere else on the floor.

From 82games.com

From 82games.com

Now, here's where the Wolves are letting their opponents shoot from.

Timberwolves.jpg

See the problem?

The Wolves are actively letting opponents shoot from the two highest scoring areas of the floor, while also over-guarding the long two, which is where you want opponents to be shooting from. They have it completely, 100% backwards. 

For comparison, here's the defensive shot chart for the San Antonio Spurs.

Spurs.jpg

San Antonio does the complete opposite of what the Wolves do defensively. They contest everything along the three point line and at the rim, and live with whatever long twos get shot against them as a result. They wisely play the percentages, knowing that the important places the guard are the places where the most points get scored from.

Now, here's the Boston Celtics.

Celtics.jpg

The Celtics take the Spurs' defensive concept even a step further. They concede a fair number of shots at the rim to completely run opponents off the three point line. Not just the corners, but everywhere along the arc.

Further still, they don't just concede the long two, they actively bait opponents into taking them. They leave guys lightly guarded or sometimes completely unguarded from 10-18 feet. It's a dirty, ingenious trick - guys think it's a good shot because they're wide open, but it's really a bad shot because the percentage is so much lower than a 3 foot shot, but worth a point less than a 23 foot shot.

Boston has the best defensive rating in the NBA this season. San Antonio is 2nd. Minnesota is 26th.

(A huge thank you to Dean Maniatt (@AllTheBucks) He's been the one tracking all this stuff as he analyzes Milwaukee's equally disasterous defense.)

What's most concerning about this is this is very clearly a system problem. The ultimate responsibility for this falls on Thibs. He's the head coach. The defensive system is his. This is not to excuse the players from what has been overall poor effort and, at times, some stupendously poor decision making on defense, but the fact that this has been a season-long problem with no improvement or signs of adjustment points to it being a problem that goes far beyond the roster.

We know Jimmy Butler can defend. We know Taj Gibson can defend. And as I've said before, I refuse to believe Wiggins and Towns are dumber or less capable at this than Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kyrie Irving. I mean, two of those guys are way younger, and the third is a known defensive sieve who believes the Earth is flat. If they can play defense, so can KAT and Andrew.

There have been a lot of signs that Thibodeau has been quietly failing to truly develop Towns and Wiggins. There have been an equal number of loud signs that the modern NBA has passed Thibs by. But as both the head coach and the de-facto general manager, Thibs has no excuse for this. He was the one who chose to downgrade the defense from Ricky Rubio to Jeff Teague. He chose to spend $14 million/year of Dieng, and stock the bench wings with known non-defenders. So it's his responsibility to make something of that.

If Rick Adelman can make a league average defense out of Kevin Love, Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic, Tom Thibodeau has no excuse for not making an average defense out of Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler.

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