The Robert Covington trade machine
The 2020 NBA trade deadline is upon us.
It’s no secret the Wolves would like to make a game-changing deal. They’re a team riding a 12 game losing streak in desperate need of a point guard.
But as we talked about, they have extremely limited resources on hand. In fact, as far as genuinely positive assets go, they have exactly one: Robert Covington.
RoCo is in high demand this deadline by teams looking to contend, teams who intended to contend and have slipped, and contenders looking to put themselves over everyone else. That’s great for the Wolves in terms of activity, but tough for them in terms of getting what truly matters: a second star. Teams that are competing aren’t parting with their stars for role players.
Just about every team .500 and over has some degree of interest in Covington. But let’s narrow it down to the ones that have been reported on, and take a look at what I believe is the minimum return the Wolves should be willing to accept from each of them.
Dallas Mavericks:
Robert Covington for Delon Wright and a future first round pick
The Mavs have a number of player combinations that could equal Covington’s salary that would bring at least a small amount of help to the Wolves. But if we’re talking Playing The Game here, let’s keep it simple with Wright. Delon’s 6’5” combo guard from the Raptors’ development tree, who showed burst of absolute brilliance for the Grizzlies last season, putting in 12-5-5 as their starting point guard towards the end of the year.
Wright has been very solid for the Mavs this season, averaging 7.4 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists off the bench. He’s been able to play as both the lead guard in bench lineups, as well as off the ball in combination with Luka. He’s also knocking down a career high 38% of his threes.
The idea of Andrew Wiggins really driving the Wolves’ offense has pretty much gone up in smoke for good at this point. Still, with his contract likely stuck on the books for another season or two, the Wolves could do a lot worse than grabbing a combo guard who can play off him by default, but also run the show when Andrew stumbles.
Philadelphia 76ers:
Robert Covington for Josh Richardson
Another trade for the Wolves to keep it simple: bring the Jimmy debacle full circle by grabbing the guy he should have been dealt for in the first place: Josh Richardson.
Much like last season when he was thrust into the leading role by the Heat out of necessity, Richardson is having a bit of an up-and-down season. The poor balance of the Sixers’ roster as a whole is not helping either. But Josh is still averaging a very respectable 15 points, 3.3 rebounds and 3.4 assists, while playing kinda-sorta out of position on a roster that doesn’t generate much spacing.
Richardson did flash high level potential to start the year, averaging 17 points while knocking down 42% of his threes in November. He was also Eastern Conference Player of the Week at the start of January when he averaged 22 points, 3 rebounds and 4 assists.
There’s good reason to believe Richardson can reach that level consistently as the #2 in a fast, spread offense that takes advantage of his IQ and athleticism.
But most importantly, Richardson has shown at least a functional ability to create plays and drive an offense. The Wolves badly need a wing who can push a defense, get it out of position and make some good things happen.
Houston Rockets:
…..uhhhhhhhhh……
Houston is in a tough situation when it comes to the RoCo chase. They’re more than willing to trade their first round pick, but that pick is likely a mid-to-late 20s pick in a weak draft. Outside of that, they have neither young players with high potential nor anything close to a salary match. The only Rocket in the vicinity of RoCo’s contract number is PJ Tucker, who is about the last player they would trade for him.
If the Rockets really want Covington, they’re going to need to pull in a third team, which probably involves trading away Clint Capela. Which, I guess, they’re trying to do anyway, for reasons I don’t really understand. But it’s Daryl Morey and the team Gers used to work for. So who knows. But in a one-to-one deal, guys like Austin Rivers make absolutely no sense for the Wolves.
Milwaukee Bucks:
KYLE KORVER KYLE KORVER KYLE KORVER KYLE KORVER KYLE KORVER
(ok Robert Covington for Donte DiVincenzo, Dragan Bender, and Ersan Ilysasova)
(….and Kyle Korver)
Could the Wolves use Milwaukee’s win-now mindset to wrangle 23 year old Dante DiVincenzo out of a deal? I don’t know, but if it’s me on that call, that’s what I’m asking for. DiVincenzo is on track to becoming a knock-down shooter off the ball, rebounds much bigger than his position, and has underrated burst and craft around the hoop. He’d be a perfect, young shooter for the Wolves.
I’m still bullish on Dragan Bender, especially after he lit up the GLeague to start the season. He’s a tall, multi-dimensional 4/3 who could maybe fill some of that Dario Saric role with another year of development. He’s worth a flier, and the Bucks aren’t in a position to put him in the rotation or extend his contract.
Ilyasova’s there for salary purposes. He’d help the Wolves, but also, if the Bucks had some other non-Eric Bledsoe combination to make ends meet, then sure. The Bucks do want to deal Bledsoe. Even with the glaring hole at point guard, the Wolves would be wise to steer clear.
LA Lakers:
Kyle Kuzma, Troy Daniels, Talen Horton-Tucker, something to make salaries match
Any deal with the Lakers pretty much has to be built around Kyle Kuzma by default. The only other player that would make any sense here is Danny Green, but if the end goal is a 3-and-d wing, just keep Covington.
Look, Kuzma’s not bad. He’s productive, is signed through 2021 to a great contract, and has regular bursts of incredible play.
There are semi-consistent games where Kuzma is completely legit.
But also….it’s Kyle Kuzma. He’s a poor 3-point shooter. He isolated far too often and passes far too infrequently. Those games where he drives the show are followed by 2 or 3 where he looks lost. The Wolves already deal with this all the time with Wiggins.
I dunno. Troy Daniels would be a great band-aid fix to the shooting woes. I love the potential of Horton-Tucker, who has one of the most unique physical profiles I’ve ever seen (height of a shooting guard, game of a small forward, width of a power forward, arms of a center) I’m just not sure a deal essentially swapping Covington for Kuz ultimately gets the Wolves anywhere.
Denver Nuggets:
Robert Covington for Monte Morris and Jerami Grant
I don’t care if they just signed Monte to an absolute steal of a contract. I don’t care if Malik Beasley is the guy they want to trade. If the Nuggets don’t put Morris on the table, there’s nothing to talk about here.
The Wolves desperately need a point guard, a shooter, and good contracts. Morris is all three. Can he be the starting point guard on a contender? Ehhh, maybe not. But also, at just a $4.8M price tag, who cares? He can definitely be a starter and knocks down 40% of his threes.
The Nuggets’ interest in Covington seems more exploratory than serious. But if they call, this is what I ask for.
LA Clippers:
Robert Covington and Josh Okogie for Landry Shamet, Moe Harkless and a future first
This is my favorite idea of them all. Landry Shamet is a player the Wolves should have gotten in the Jimmy Butler trade to begin with. He’s a relentless mover off the ball who’s on track to becoming a complete knock down shooter. The Wolves need a Landry Shamet in the absolute worst way.
Moe Harkless is a good small forward who can be a starter and has connections to the ex-Blazers in the Wolves’ locker room. The Wolves can send out Okogie too, as a sweetener and to get, say, a 2022 first out of the deal. Okogie would fit perfectly with the Clippers’ bench mob between Lou Williams and Trez Harrell…a third guy for them who will go 110% every night. That’ll give the Clippers two guys locked up through at least 2022 on good contracts, in exchange for Shamet and a guy who’s deal is expiring.
This is the deal that seems the most realistic to me, that would help both teams move forward with their immediate goals without sacrificing anything major long term. It’s also my favorite of all these trade ideas. If the Clippers are serious about nabbing Covington - which they should be - this strikes me as a fair asking price for him.
Wild Card:
Robert Covington for Lonnie Walker IV
The salaries don’t match. Also I have no idea what the Spurs’ ultimate goal is right now. I’m just sayin’…
Wait for D’Angelo Russell:
But here’s the bottom line: none of these players will help the Wolves anywhere near as much as D’Angelo Russell will. Yes, DLo is a flawed player. Yes, the max contract is a bit of an overpay. But the Wolves have three glaring problems…
They need a positional point guard
They need an engine to drive the offense
They need to make shots
…D’Angelo is easily the best player on the market they can get. It’s not really close. And his availability is a very coincidental opportunity that the Wolves need to try and take advantage of. Because the Warriors are throwing this season but are expected to contend next season when everyone is healthy, they’re in a unique position of needing veteran help more than young potential.
Robert Covington doesn’t do much for a Wizards team that trades away Bradley Beal. But he does a ton for a Warriors team that trades away DLo because they’ll have Steph and Klay and Draymond. That sort of situation is extremely rare. The Wolves shouldn’t just sell the farm for him - they shouldn’t start dealing unprotected picks and half their bench. But they have to try to find a deal here before trying anything else.
Also, there is no rush:
Robert Covington is on a bargain contract through 2022. He’s a good player, and a close friend to KAT. He shouldn’t be dealt unless it very clearly moves the team forward.
Landry Shamet/Lonnie Walker is where I draw the line. Anything worse than that and I think it’s a lateral move at best.
