Spurs 112 - Wolves 108: Pantomiming "situation normal"
“Everything’s perfectly all right now. We’re fine. We’re all fine here, now, thank you. How are you?”
1. That’s basically the Timberwolves’ season opener in a nutshell. They banded together- at least in appearance - and played a game that was only flawed in a "the coach is Thibs” kind of way, not a “the team has been in crisis mode for a month” kind of way. It was an exercise in playacting the meaning of Jimmy Butler’s #SoCalledDrama Instagram post - “No, no, everything’s fine. Fake news. Situation normal.”
And to their credit, there were no overt signs of discord. Had the true extent of the behind-the-scenes fissures not been published (which, ironically, Jimmy only has himself to blame) the average fan probably wouldn’t have known anything was amiss. The subtext of certain behaviors and actions last night - the way KAT started the game by immediately whipping the ball to Jimmy every time he touched it, for example - would only have been apparent if you went in already knowing what to look for.
2. The system is still broken. This isn’t really a surprise given they’re still coached by Tom Thibodeau, but there was reason to at least faintly hope there would be small, positive adjustments. Anthony Tolliver was signed. Josh Okogie and Keita Bates-Diop both got extended playing time and performed well, implying they’d get a fair chance at rotation minutes. And once again, Thibs spent the summer talking about pick-and-rolls, the importance of three pointers, and how central KAT was to the team’s success. So it felt like there was potential for a real breakthrough to happen in terms of system and bench rotations.
Nope.
At least in game 1 of the season, the Wolves were as they ever have been under Thibs. The rotation only went nine players deep, with Derrick Rose being the only one afforded significant playing time off the bench (Dieng played 24 minutes more as a result of KAT and Taj both getting into foul trouble) The Wolves as a whole only attempted 19 threes in total - 6 less than the Spurs, who are themselves light on three point shooting. Tyus was told he would get real playing time after Jamal’s departure, but played only 16 minutes last night - the exact average he played last season - while Derrick Rose played twice that despite being a clear detriment.
It took 7 minutes for KAT to get his first shot. Even with his lackluster performance last night, that’s inexcusable. He finished with only 6 FGA - 7th on the team. Butler, Wiggins, Teague, Rose, Dieng and Tyus all took more shots than KAT. Not good.
3. Anthony Tolliver needs to get more shots. This is going to be a very interesting arc to watch turn throughout the season. Tolliver is here to gun from three. He in fact outright said it on media day.
The Wolves have ranked at the bottom on the league in three point shooting both years under Thibs (and his Bulls teams ranked at the bottom of the league in threes for years before he was hired here) The Wolves offense overloads on midrange, which create both a spacing problem and a math problem for them. Tolliver was brought in for almost the exclusive reason of being a balancing arm to the shots going up from 2. After a preseason of absolutely gunning it from distance, it appeared that Thibs understood his value, and the greater need for the spacing his shooting would bring.
Yet last night, he got just one shot in almost 20 minutes, and it was from two, not three. This is not ideal. Tolliver’s value lies solely in his ability to knock down threes from the power forward spot. Without that, he’s fairly unremarkable as a player - a solid defender, and that’s about it. His usage against the Spurs removed the “3” from his “3&D” game, which is the most important part.
Given the circumstances and the makeup of the Wolves’ roster, Tolliver should be the first player off the bench, the primary big man off the bench, and taking 8-10 threes every game. None of that happened last night.
Last season, there was a fairly loud debate about Bjelica, and whether he was stopping himself from shooting threes or if the Wolves’ system was stopping him. This year is going to be a referendum on that. Tolliver is not shy about getting up threes. Over the past 5 years, an incredible 76% (!!!!!!) of Tollivers FGA have been from 3 (1,404 of his 1,855 shots) If that doesn’t happen this year, we know it’s not him.
4. Thibs has not changed. This definitely shouldn’t be a surprise, but it should be said all the same, as it’s the root cause of everything that’s been written above.
The short rotations, lack of shooting, lack of feeding Towns….on and on and on. It’s all been Thibs’ M.O. as a coach here, and largely as a coach in general. He has his method. He will stick to it no matter what.
On defense, this is a huge problem, but at least there’s an explanation: ICE is Thibs’ invention. It’s his legacy as a basketball person. It’s obsolete now thanks to teams playing 5-out with shooting bigs and hunting for corner threes, but Thibs would rather go down on that ship than abandon his greatest work. I get that. I don’t at all agree with it, but I get it.
Everything else, however, is just vexing.
Threes are a math problem. Everyone shoots them but the Wolves, and they’re worth more. So to keep up on the scoreboard, the Wolves have to be incredibly efficient at everything else. It’s the classic “work twice as hard for the same salary” bit. There’s just no need for the team to make things extra difficult on themselves this way.
The short rotations are also a problem with no reasonable explanation. Not only is there an oil barge’s worth of medical science now that clearly says playing long minutes is a significant injury risk, but it also creates a cycle of unsustainability. The young players - Okogie, Keita, Georges-Hunt, etc - don’t get any chances to develop on-court. They don’t compete in live situations against NBA caliber players at full speed. Thus, when they are needed, they don’t have their legs fully under them. This then leads Thibs to believe they aren’t good, so he plays them even less. Then, the next season, when veterans depart and the young guys become necessary, they aren’t ready because they had no chance at getting up to speed.
Also worth discussing: Thibs’ obsession with slashing wing attacks. Karl-Anthony Towns had one of the greatest shooting seasons in NBA history last season. His 20ppg on a 55-42-85 shooting split has only been equaled by two other players ever: Kevin Durant and Larry Bird. Steve Nash is the only other one with that split (but he never topped 18ppg in a season). So not Steph Curry. Not Ray Allen. Not Dirk. Not Peja. KAT, KD and Bird. That’s it.
Yet yesterday, the Wolves played to form from last season, with KAT largely relegated to Joakim Noah duty on offense while Butler and Wiggins took all the shots. It’s simply not good. It’s not good for the on-court product and not good for the team’s relationship with its max contract franchise player.
Derrick Rose is the poster boy of the culmination of all this. He played 31 highly destructive minutes last night, largely in a 2 point guard lineup that Thibs never ever used until he got Rose back. He took 12 shots (making only three of them) while KAT and Tolliver combined for only 7. Thibs’ largely blind attachment to Rose stops him from keeping a reasonable leash on Rose’s usage, and that usage is now eating into the games of other players on the team whos unique talents are the real strengths that will drive the team’s success. The Wolves won’t win by trying to turn Rose back into a player he can no longer be. They can win by leaning on the historic scoring talents of KAT (and the league-leading 3pt sharpshooting of Tolliver) But they have to choose to do so.
I’ve mentioned this before, but I’m starting to believe Thibs’ behavior is compulsory. I’m not sure he’s really doing all of this intentionally. I think, intellectually, he understands there’s a better way and that there are some changes that need to be made. But when it’s game time and an actual loss is on the line, his instincts take over. He weighs the idea of a system he doesn’t know or like and young players he doesn’t know if he can trust, and decides to go with what’s won him games before instead, not realizing that method doesn’t really work anymore.
5. The Wolves are now in a dangerous holding pattern. The combination of Thibs’ stubborness and the Wolves’ decision to act like “situation normal” creates a very sharp double-edged sword. On one hand, it would be optimal for this to continue until Jimmy is traded. The Wolves come out, they play a drama-free, flawed but competitive game, the end. Anything that could truly blow things up are diffused and shelved until a permanent solution if found and it stops being a thing.
On the other hand, Thibs has spent this whole process believing that he can coach through this, and results like this are only going to reinforce that for him. He’s thinking “See, I was right. We played hard. We worked together. We nearly beat a really good team. Everyone will forget about the problems.”
(FYI, no one is forgetting them. Least of all Jimmy and KAT)
Jimmy has not changed his mind about wanting to get paid. And he and KAT have not changed their minds about wanting to be separate (yes, we’ll call it “wanting to be separate” for now) so the only way Jimmy can get paid is a trade. To get his super max contract, he needs his new team to hold his bird rights, which they can only get by trading for him. Thibs is obviously doing everything in his power to prevent a trade from happening, while it remains to be seen if Layden is truly free from that and truly on board with moving him. Meanwhile, the longer they wait, the more agitated Jimmy will become. If he senses a trade isn’t going to happen, he’ll bring Practice Jimmy back out again to create a situation so toxic Glen has no choice but to fire Thibs to get a trade done.
So now the Wolves face a new and dangerous chapter of this saga. Things look like normal when they’re not. Thibs still refuses to shift the focus to KAT, who just signed a max contract to stay, instead continuing to rely on Jimmy and Rose. But Rose isn’t good anymore and Jimmy wants out. Keeping Butler as the focus turns the waiting game into a time bomb. A system built on Jimmy blows up overnight after a Jimmy trade when he’s no longer there to anchor it, and Jimmy himself will blow up if that trade doesn’t happen. The only sustainable move for the future is to rebuild around KAT now so losing Jimmy is just a blip, not the whole farm. But Thibs refuses to move on, which means the team probably can’t go forward until it moves on from him.
