So...what now?
Defeat from the jaws of victory.
It’s Timberwolves.
In fairness, Gersson Rosas and the current front office had very little to do with why the chase for D’Angelo Russell didn’t work out in the end. DLo wanted to be here. His agency wanted him to be here (CAA represents Karl-Anthony Towns, Robert Covington, and Rosas) The Wolves tried to move salary to open up enough space to sign D’Angelo and simply couldn’t. No one wanted Andrew Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng, or Jeff Teague. That’s not Rosas’ fault - he didn’t sign those players to those contracts.
Nonetheless, the Wolves have exited the draft and the opening flurry of free agency without the one thing they really need - the one thing that really matters - a second star to pair with KAT.
So what’s the plan now?
Asset collection:
The Wolves’ best path is the one the Brooklyn Nets took with, ironically, D’Angelo Russell.
The Wolves weren’t able to get their first choice of star player in this year’s free agency, and next year’s free agency isn’t lining up to offer one. It’s projected to be a much weaker class, with the top 4 players - Anthony Davis, Ben Simmons, Pascal Siakam and Draymond Green - all almost certainly locks to stay with their current teams.
This means the best path to a star for the Wolves is via trade - either a team deciding it can’t pay the one it has (like what happened with Kemba Walker and James Harden) or one simply demands out (like Paul George or Kawhi Leonard or Anthony Davis)
That means asset collection. The Wolves need to stockpile assets that will appeal to other teams if/when they are forced to move a star. That means young, talented players on good contracts, draft picks, and cap space.
Rosas has gotten a really good start on the first. Since missing out on D’Angelo, the Wolves barged in on the DLo sign-and-trade to nab Shabazz Napier and Trevor Graham, whom the Warriors didn’t want to spend roster spots on.
Even bigger, the Wolves have signed Jordan Bell, Noah Vonleh and Jake Layman for a combined $7 million. Bell is an uber talent looking to prove himself in a bigger role than he got with the Warriors. Vonleh is coming off a ‘prove it’ year with the Knicks and is betting on himself for next summer’s free agency. Layman had a breakout year with the Portland Trailblazers, and is coming to the Wolves to keep momentum on his progression after the Blazers filled his spot in the rotation with Kent Bazemore and Rodney Hood.
It isn’t hard to identify talent and pay those players at or above their value. The Wolves could easily take their Mid-Level Exception and make $9 million offers to Delon Wright, Danny Green or Kelly Oubre. What they’ve actually done is much more difficult - and much smarter. They’ve identified players who would be willing to sign far below their real value because of the opportunity for something other than money. That makes it likely, if not all but certain, that those players - Bell and Layman in particular - will outplay their contracts.
This means that all five players the Wolves have acquired so far have value beyond the court. Napier and Graham are both players are on cheap, non-guaranteed contracts. They can either be cut for no cost this summer, or kept as prime trade assets. Other teams could acquire them to match salary, then easily waive them to keep from having that salary count against their cap. Bell, Vonleh and Layman will probably produce beyond their contract numbers, making them bargain roster fillers. Like Robert Covington is. In trade, that’s gold. Teams covet those player/contracts, especially when losing a star where a primary goal of that sort of trade is reducing salary. And the Wolves have done all this without using any of their Mid-Level Exception money.
There’s a decent chance the Wizards will trade Bradley Beal by this time next year, and there’s always a chance Devin Booker simply gets fed up with the Suns’ front office incompetency and demands out. And, in a spinfoil-y hat-ish way, there’s a leaguewide expectation that the Warriors will not keep DLo after Klay Thompson returns. That he’s only there to fill the shooting guard spot while Klay rehabs, but otherwise is simply a way for the Warriors to ensure Kevin Durant didn’t leave for nothing.
As the trade for D’Angelo has hard capped them (meaning they can only sign veteran minimum contracts now), Golden State will almost certainly have to trade Russell when Klay comes back. It’s the only way they’ll be able to add quality depth to the roster.
So the Wolves have gotten a good start on the next round of star chasing. It’s likely this is not the last we’ve heard of D’Angelo Russell to the Timberwolves. By signing Layman and drafting Jarrett Culver and Jaylen Nowell, Rosas has set up the roster in a way that the team can stomach trading Robert Covington and/or Josh Okogie to help move salary if needed.
The opportunities will be there. There will always be a star somewhere that wants to change teams. It’s just a matter now of waiting for that moment, and being prepared when it arrives.
Moving money?:
Salary is the ultimate resource in the NBA. The salary cap is the ultimate obstruction.
For example:
Simply because the Wolves were unable to secure DLo does not mean they should stop trying to deal Wiggins, Dieng or Teague. Those contracts will be just as problematic in their next pursuit as they were in the last.
Moving Wiggins’ contract, even for one that’s just as expensive but shorter - say, Nic Batum - would be a big win for the Wolves in this situation. As would dealing him for low end role players. The key is to not attach multiple assets at sweeteners. Before Rosas was hired, the Wolves canvassed the league for the asking price on Wiggins. They were told it was two first round picks, or a first round pick and Josh Okogie. If the Wolves can manage to knock that down to just one pick or just Okogie, they should pull the trigger on that trade immediately. There simply will be no building an excellent team around KAT with Wiggins’ contract anchoring them down.
Meanwhile, Teague will have a great deal of trade value in February, so it’s probably best to keep him until then. Dieng should also continue to be shopped, but if there aren’t any takers, he’ll have great trade value in February 2021 at the latest.
But the bottom line is a team that’s star hunting needs salary space, and the Wolves currently have none. They should still try to move their bad contracts, even though the DLo ship has sailed by (for now…)
Keeping Tyus:
Missing out on D’Angelo greatly raised the importance of keeping Tyus Jones in a Timberwolves uniform, and with each passing day, this looks more and more likely to happen.
Tyus has more than earned his shot at a starting spot, and has the unequivocal support of Head Coach Ryan Saunders. He’s also shown great chemistry with KAT and flashed immense potential in tandem with Covington, particularly on defense. But the overriding factor here is the Wolves will continue to try moving Jeff Teague’s salary, which means Jones could very likely be the only starter-level point guard on the roster.
Teams were very quick to spend their money, and spend a lot of it, right away in free agency this year. Most of the teams with high levels on interest in Jones - Phoenix, New Orleans, Sacramento, Chicago - have now spent their money elsewhere. With most of the contracts being signed at this point falling below Tyus’ qualifying offer amount, it’s unlikely that he will get an offer amount the Wolves deem too much to be worth matching.
For Jones, the best plan would probably be to simply accept the qualifying offer itself, play out the season under a coach who believes in him and will play him big minutes, then hit unrestricted free agency next summer when the free agent class is much weaker.
In any event, the Wolves are in the driver’s seat when it comes to retaining Tyus, at least for the coming season. That undoubtably will make many, many Wolves fans happy - yours truly first and foremost among them.
The Mid-Level Exception:
Because of the brilliant way Rosas has approached free agency, the Wolves have addressed their needs at power forward and for shooters without using any of their MLE money. This means the door is still open for them to make a semi-big signing.
The idea would be the same as signing Jordan Bell - grabbing a player with the potential to have a breakout year - but on a bigger, more expensive scale.
One free agent still out there that would check his box is Delon Wright, who’s already been somewhat of a revelation in Memphis after being traded from Toronto. Wright used the free minutes and opportunity to nearly double his output, from 7 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2 assists in a limited bench role with the Raptors, to 12 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 5 assists as a starter with the Grizzlies. His game log included a monster 26 points, 10 rebounds, 14 assist performance against the Dallas Mavericks (who reportedly have strong interest in signing him)
If the Wolves want to take a big swing and spend most/all of their MLE money on a single player, Delon Wright is the guy they should look at. He’s a 35% three point shot away from being a huge deal. He could be a star. Or in a trade for a star, he’d check the box for the one thing all teams look for when trading away a star - getting a player who could be a star in the future. It’s worth thinking about.
Other free agents worth looking at include Quinn Cook, who has been filling the backup point guard spot in Golden State for a few years now (and admirably stepped into the starting role when Curry was injured) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was once eager to be drafted by the Wolves, and is coming off a couple solid season with the Lakers. Vince Carter is certainly getting up there in years and miles, but proved last season he can still play. Jabari Parker was once in consideration to be drafted first instead of Andrew Wiggins, and was on a career trajectory to be much better than Wigs before injuries set it. The Wolves have been linked to Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, a versatile defender who worked with assistant coach Pablo Prigioni in Brooklyn. Marcus Morris is coming off a strong season in Boston. Ditto Kelly Oubre in Phoenix.
But again, those players would be expensive signings for the on-court value alone. With the possible exception of Oubre, that’s a group of guys who are topped out on their potential. Again, the idea for the Wolves is to sign guys who have a lot of room to still improve, so that their contracts become assets instead of obstacles.
In any event though, the Wolves’ summer is far from done. There will be more signings, and maybe more trades. Who knows? Maybe Beal or Booker decide to take matters into their own hands sooner rather than later. The key is for the Wolves to be ready for whatever opportunity comes their way.
