Picking first in a draft with no answers?
For the first time in franchise history, the Minnesota Timberwolves have moved up in the draft. And not only moved up, but landed the #1 overall pick.
But in quintessential TImberwolves form, they’ve landed the top pick in a draft with no obvious top pick.
There’s no Zion Williamson or Ja Morant like last year. There’s no Cade Cunningham like there will probably be next year. It wouldn’t be an overstatement to say that this draft is one of the weakest in recent memory, and most certainly one of the most difficult to evaluate ever.
In depth draft analysis will be coming, but for now, here’s the cover letter version of the top three ‘consensus’ picks:
LaMelo Ball - a highly gifted point guard in the body of a wing. Unselfish, insane court vision, incredible IQ, small statistical sample size in an overseas league, highly suspect shooting, comes with a crazy dad
James Wiseman - tall, athletic, powerful. Has played 3 total games in the past 18 months. Not clear what he does besides rebound and dunk. A very long term project
Anthony Edwards - explosive athlete, explosive scorer. Suspect IQ, suspect motor. Alarmingly bad efficiency, and on a bad team to boot
So you start to see the red flags. There’s no home run pick here. At best, the Wolves are making a fairly long-odds gamble on what one of these players could be at his best. And yes, the ceiling is high for all three of them. But the floor is also low….much much lower than your typical #1 pick outlook usually is.
Both statistically and by the tape, the most likely outcome for all three of these guys is high-end role player. This is not a KAT situation. This is not Zion, or Anthony Davis, or Ben Simmons, or Blake Griffin or John Wall. Anthony Edwards carries non of the statistical markers of a potential NBA star. Wiseman played only 3 games, so his stats are all but useless in evaluation. LaMelo only played 12 games, all of them overseas.
But the problem for the Wolves goes deeper than just the high risk. Minnesota already has it’s foundational pieces in place - Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell. Meaning this team has a good idea of who they are. The Wolves aren’t the typical #1 pick-ee, just grabbing at sheer talent. They have specific things they need - and more importantly, specific things they don’t.
LeMelo Ball - is a point guard. And a point guard who plays best at a breakneck pace. The Wolves already have a point guard, who happens to be their franchise player’s best friend, and who also happens to favor a much more methodical pace. Pairing LaMelo and DLo, at best, minimizes their best skills and creates a conflict of interest. DLo is the one with the shooting touch to play off the ball, but he’s also the one with 4 years of NBA seniority, the $117M contract, and KAT’s blessing. But LaMelo can’t shoot, so playing him off the ball makes him a non-contributor. Also, have I mentioned he comes with a crazy dad?
James Wiseman - is a center, and a project. The Wolves already have a franchise player at center, have made a sizeable investment in a backup (Naz Reid) and likely have James Johnson making a sizeable investment in them by picking up his $16M contract option. Bigs take the longest to develop. Wiseman has physical tools most general managers would kill for, but this is not a team that has 3-4 years to spend waiting for a pick that would be the 3rd or 4th option off the bench just at his own position.
Anthony Edwards - first of all, shooting 40% at the college level on a bad team is a massive red flag. Future NBA stars should at least be putting up eye-catching ‘empty’ stats in that situation. And a team that just finally divested themselves from Andrew Wiggins should be all kinds of alarmed by Edwards’ nonchalant-ed-ness. Guy with high talent but low motor are among the most problematic players for a team. They have just enough outbursts to convince a team they’re just one year away from stardom. Then three years and $100M later, they’re still living off ‘potential’ Bad shot selection is a killer. Low motor is a killer. The Wolves should know this better than any team in the league.
So. Where to go from here.
The Wolves have three things they need to do here: They need to fill in the gaps between KAT and DLo. They need to manage their salary cap. And they need to think about next year, when they could very well lose their draft pick to Golden State.
Fortunately, I think they have a way accomplish all of this: trade the pick.
Because of the Wolves’ fairly unconventional situation for a top pick holder - they already have two max contract All Stars at the game’s two most important positions - picking first overall…as detailed above…is a conundrum for them. But there are a lot of teams that are highly disappointed they aren’t picking first.
The Wolves don’t have much use for a high potential point guard or center project (ditto the Golden State Warriors, who have three max contract All Stars) But the Cleveland Cavaliers do. The New York Knicks do. The Detroit Pistons do. The Washington Wizards do. Hey, why not see if one of them wants this pick?
The goal here would be a deal with a team that really needs a LaMelo or Wiseman or Edwards that exchanges that #1 pick for a pick later in the lottery and a pick next year, when the Wolves could lose their own to the Warriors. This would not only ensure the Wolves pick if the first round next year, whether or not their own pick conveys, but it would put them in a position to make an easier pick this year from a pool of players, that, quite frankly, I think would help more and could very well ultimately just be better in the long run.
Deni Avdija - as far as I’m concerned, this is the actual best player in this draft. If he consistently hits 35% of his threes, like he did for the last 2 months of the Euro season, there’s no questions about it. The future of this league is 6’10” guys who pass like point guards. Simmons, Giannis, Luka. Avdija isn’t as good as them, but he’s in that wheelhouse. Handles, court vision, box outs, a mean streak….he’s the most complete package of anyone in this draft.
Patrick Williams - the ideal power forward to bridge Towns and D’Angelo is one who sets hard screens, attacks the hoop off the roll, and protects the rim from the weak side. In other words, Brandon Clarke. But since he’s a Grizzly bear, meet Patrick Williams, a stellar athlete who can screen for DLo, draw the defense away from DLo and KAT by diving to hoop, and contests shots like a madman.
Devin Vassell - he’s like a Josh Okogie who will shoot 35-40% on his threes. Also very high character and a relentless worker, two things the Wolves especially value.
Saddiq Bey - if the Celtics have proven anything, it’s the value of having endless waves of 6’8”, multi-dimensional wings to throw at the enemy. Bey is a smart passer, smart cutter, hits his threes, and defends. No team can ever have enough of those guys
The Cavs’ pick is 5th. Detroit is 7th, New York is 8th, Washington is 9th. Pull off a 1+1 deal with any of them - say, hypothetically, the Wolves 2020 #1 for the Knicks 2020 #8 and 2021 #16 - and the Wolves are guaranteed one of the four above players. Draft help this year, a guaranteed pick next year, and someone else can take the arrows on the Edwards gamble and LaMelo’s crazy dad.
This draft does in fact have answers for the Wolves. They just aren’t at the top of it.
