Brandon Clarke - The Wrecking Machine
Strengths:
Analytically, Clarke is a once-in-a-generation prospect. .700 True Shooting percentage. A .11 turnover rate on a 23-25% usage rate. The steals rate of a guard. A block rate in Joel Embiid territory. Even at 22 years old, he’s a 30% 3pt shot away from being the best player in this draft.
Much of this is due to his exceptional athleticism. Clarke is a top 5% athlete, even at the NBA level. Not only does he have a 40”+ vertical, but at 6’8”, he has the downhill quickness and lateral agility of a guard. At the combine, he tested out with a lane agility and 3/4 sprint in the John Wall range.
Clarke’s calling card is defense. He combines his innate athleticism with excellent instincts - awareness, anticipation, timing, reflex and a good grasp of defensive fundamentals and team coordination. At the college level, he could legitimately guard all 5 positions. Any team drafting him will be doing it to get immediate help on the defensive end.
Concerns:
Overwhelmingly the greatest concern with Clarke comes from his combine date. He measured just 6’8”, 207 lbs with a 6’8” wingspan. In essence, his physical size is that of a big shooting guard, in the range of Klay Thompson and Gerald Green.
The 6’8” wingspan makes him a true anomaly. In the past 20 years of combine data, only one player listed as a big has carved out an NBA career with a height/wingspan combo both under 6’8”: Matt Bonner, who made his living almost exclusively on his shooting ability.
To that end, Clarke has no shooting touch, scoring almost all of his points point blank at the rim. Interestingly, only about 50% of his makes were assisted, so he wasn’t just catching lobs. At the same time, he won’t have the physical advantages in the NBA that he did in the NCAA, which could drastically cut down on his ability to create.
The likelyhood that Clarke will ever be a significant offensive contributor in the NBA is very slim. At 22 year old, the age curve is definitely not on his side. He has likely hit his ceiling in terms of skill. Any scoring
In summary:
The short arms coupled with his non-shooting makes Clarke an almost unprecedented prospect. If the arms aren’t a problem, Clarke has the potential to be an absolute defensive terror fairly literally unlike anything the NBA has seen. Think Draymond Green, but who blocks shots like Anthony Davis. If they are a problem, however, Clarke likely tops out as a niche role player off the bench, like a tall Tony Allen. There isn’t really any grey median for him. He’s going to wreck someone’s house. It’s just a question of if it’s his own team’s or someone else’s.
For the Wolves, that’s a huge risk to take with one of the (very) few real assets they have to try and turn the ship around. So if he’s the pick, they need to be absolutely certain the arms won’t be a problem.
